No significant rainfall likely over next four-five days: IMD

No significant rainfall activity was likely in any part of the country during the next four to five days, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday. Rainfall was expected from September 26 to October 10, according to the extended range model guidance.
“In the next four to five days, wind direction may change to westerly but that does not mean rainfall will stop everywhere. A fresh cyclonic circulation is expected to develop over east India around September 22. It is likely to intensify into a cyclonic circulation and travel towards central India and cross Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, etc,” said private forecaster Skymet Weather vice president (climate and meteorology) Mahesh Palawat. “So it will rain and [monsoon] withdrawal may be delayed. It has stopped raining in west Rajasthan.”
IMD forecast last week that monsoon may begin withdrawal from parts of northwest India around September 22. If that happens, it will be the earliest the monsoon withdraws from the region in eight years. In 2023, it started withdrawing around 25 September.
IMD announced on September 30 in 2022 that monsoon has withdrawn from Punjab, Chandigarh Delhi, parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, and Rajasthan. But it continued raining and experts said IMD announced the commencement of withdrawal prematurely. The monsoon normally commences withdrawal on September 17 and withdraws completely by October 15.
IMD considers some major synoptic features after September 1 before declaring monsoon withdrawal from the western parts. These include cessation of rainfall activity for continuous five days, the establishment of anticyclones in the lower troposphere, and considerable reduction in moisture content as inferred from satellite water vapour imageries. Further monsoon withdrawal is declared keeping the spatial continuity, reduction in moisture as seen in the water vapour imageries, and prevalence of dry weather for five days.
The monsoon withdraws from the southern peninsula only after October 1, when the circulation pattern indicates a change over from the southwesterly wind regime.
A cyclonic circulation was lying over southeast Rajasthan and neighbourhood in lower and middle tropospheric levels. Isolated places in Andaman and Nicobar Islands, western Uttar Pradesh received heavy to very heavy rainfall on Wednesday. Heavy rainfall was reported from isolated places in West Madhya Pradesh. The western end of the monsoon trough was north of its normal position and the eastern end was south of its normal position.
There has been 7% excess rainfall since June 1. Central India has received 18%, peninsular India 17% and northeastern India 7% excess rainfall. There has been a 14% rain deficiency in east and northeast India.